On impeachment-trial eve, CNN is out with a devastating new poll. The numbers will send shivers through an already nervous Republican party and may cause Republican senators to revaluate their fidelity to Trump over citizenry, and the need to hear from witnesses. Like in a normal trial, which it appears the country is demanding.

There is no arguing around this:

New CNN poll:

51% of Americans say Trump should be *removed.* Only 45% say he shouldn't

69% say Senate trial should feature new witnesses

58% say Trump abused his power

57% say he obstructed House impeachment inquiry

So, no, his lies aren't "working"https://t.co/YUXyEY8Bxk

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 20, 2020

So a little over half of Americans believe it is time for Trump to go.

That stat, in and of itself, is horrific news for Trump, as that number has grown from 38% last September, and probably doesn’t fully incorporate Parnas’s new evidence and revelations made in the last few day.

More ominously for Mitch McConnell, nearly 7 out of 10 Americans believe that the Senate must call witnesses. Both McConnell and Trump know that if the American people hear from Bolton, Parnas, Mulvaney, etc. as to exactly what happened, it will be near impossible to clear Trump. The Republicans in the Senate will be reduced to saying: “That was bad, but with an election coming up, it’s best to just let the voters decide.”

That’s not a strong position.  Especially if it is argued on behalf of someone like Trump, who has never done anything that was’t “perfect,” ever. Yet the evidence will be sitting right there.

Unlike the blog’s readers, the average American likely doesn’t know the horrifically damning nature of the evidence against Trump. The average American hasn’t been watching throughout the entire build-up. But they damn sure will be watching the trial, especially if it is on prime-time, which sounds increasingly likely.

The pressure will be on McConnell to allow witnesses.

Of course, McConnell could always say: “fck it, we’re not having witnesses because I’m #MoscowMitch and Moscow doesn’t want witnesses.” But Mitch has to be careful in making that determination, too. Americans have proven that they will put up with one hell of a lot of corruption, but that cover-ups are verboten. We do not like it when politicians attempt to make fools of us, and pull the wool over our eyes.

If McConnell holds his caucus together and excludes the possibility of witnesses, McConnell imperils his majority status coming next November. Voters may well exact their revenge. The blog has said this before, because – quite frankly, it cannot be said enough – Mitch McConnell would much rather be the Senate Majority leader under president Elizabeth Warren (or Biden, Sanders, Bloomberg, etc), than be the minority leader during President Trump’s second term.

McConnell wants power for McConnell, not for Republicans, and damned sure not for Trump. If McConnell goes full in the tank for Trump and withholds all witnesses, obviously engaging in a cover-up, and thereby infuriating seven out of ten Americans, and 5.1 out of ten Kentuckians, McConnell puts all he cares about – McConnell power – very much in jeopardy.

Sure, McConnell wants to help Trump, always has, but not at McConnell’s own expense. McConnell may roll the dice and bet that he can have it all, or he may decide he needs to play it safe, allow witnesses and let the chips fall where they may.

The question ultimately boils down to: Is Mitch feeling lucky?

These poll numbers indicate he would need a great deal of “luck” to pull this off.

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Peace, y’all

Jason

[email protected] and on Twitter @MiciakZoom