The national meme lately is that Trump is running stronger than ever, and is the current favorite to win in November. Certainly, whom the Democrats pick to run against Trump will factor in hugely on whether Trump wins a second term.

But we have to keep in mind that presidential elections are won state by state. National poll numbers mean far less than how Trump is doing in those “purple states,” especially states that he won in 2016 but might struggle with in 2020. One of those key states is Arizona, and one of the key indicators as to Trump’s fate is the well-being of one Senator Martha McSally.

McSally, you will surely recall, is the only senator currently in congress who lost her one and only race for the senate, and yet got a participation trophy anyway. The governor appointed McSally to the seat vacated by the late John McCain.

Sen. McSally is up for election in 2020, and she has a real deal opponent, who was a real deal badass even before he became the ultimate badass in taking up his wife’s cause for gun reform (standing in support of one’s injured wife and fighting for her cause is the definition of being a man, something Trump could never do, but which men like me can aspire to).

Kelly is the only one in the race against McSally who tied his ass to a can of glorified dynamite and orbited the earth as one of America’s best astronauts, and even that was after he was one of America’s best military test pilots! Kelly has a lot of badassery to his back story.

All of that ought to be plenty to sink McSally. But, as we noted, Arizona is a purple state, and Republicans do not cross over. It is also precisely why polls out of Arizona showing that McSally’s impeachment vote is kicking her ass are highly important:

Going into the impeachment, McSally was polling at 42 percent at PPP polls, RealClearPolitics reported. However, the new data today shows McSally struggling to break 40. Instead, she’s hovering around 39 percent, while her opponent, Mark Kelly is at 46 percent.

46 is more than 39, even in Russia.

And let’s not forget this about McSally either, she managed a self-inflicted wound of the type that jackasses often self-inflict:

McSally voted against witnesses and documents being admitted into the impeachment trial, she attacked a CNN reporter for asking if she was going to vote to support witnesses or new evidence. Instead of answering the question, she called the reporter a “liberal hack.” But it was a question her constituents wanted answers.

The drop of 3% is not a huge “drop,” but more importantly, it is not a “gain.” In our current political climate, one might have worried that McSally would gain 3% because of her vote. So, in one way, we can almost think of it as a 6% point swing.

Meanwhile, Mark Kelly is doing what a Mark Kelly does. He is being a great husband to one of the only people in the country tougher than he is, and he’s stepping up to serve his country, again. Only this time, instead of tying himself to “glorified dynamite,” he’s tied himself to something much more explosive, today’s political climate.

Hopefully, as per usual, Kelly will soon find himself orbiting above the polluted political atmosphere, going about completing his duties in total silence, in a no-fail mission.

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Peace, y’all

Jason

[email protected] and on Twitter @MiciakZoom