Election 2020

Historian Who Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win Now Says He Will Lose

He predicted Donald Trump would win the 2016 election four years ago and became instantly famous, but now political historian Allan Lichtman is predicting Trump will crash and burn this time around.

Lichtman, who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. said in an op-ed for The New York Times that Trump is quite unlikely to win a second term as the deadly pandemic, civil unrest, and the high unemployment rate continues to wreak havoc, Raw Story reports.

Lichtman lists several factors that he says are “keys” to predicting the outcome regarding presidential races, and Trump’s party has hit the mark several times, having lost the House of Representatives in 2018, the economy has slid into a recession and there’s been “considerable” social unrest over the last few months.

Trump does have some things in his favor, Lichtman said. There have been no major foreign policy debacles, and he dinged his political rival, Joe Biden, as not being charismatic but this isn’t enough to outweigh other problems the president is facing.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” he said.

But Trump’s 2016 win isn’t the only thing the noted historian predicted correctly. He also predicted Trump would be impeached, and in 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that recollected 120 years of U.S. election history. In a span of four decades, his system has accurately predicted the winners of presidential races, beginning with Ronald Reagan in 1984 and ending with Trump.

And he offered up this warning:

“Don’t just take my word for it,” he says in his video opinion. “There are forces at play outside the keys: Voter suppression, Russian meddling.”

“It’s up to you, the voters, to decide the future of our democracy. So get out and vote. Vote in person. Vote by mail. As Abraham Lincoln said: ‘The best way to predict the future is to choose it.”

He’s definitely got a point there. As you can also see in the video below.

meet the author

Megan has lived in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida and she currently lives in Central America. Living in these places has informed her writing on politics, science, and history. She is currently owned by 15 cats and 3 dogs and regularly owns Trump supporters when she has the opportunity. She can be found on Twitter at https://twitter.com/GaiaLibra and Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/politicalsaurus

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