There are theories out there haunting Democrats.

We have a combination of things going against us that terrify us going into the coming election. For one, we rightly have PTSD from the last election, in which Hillary led in national polls the entire campaign – or at least 90% of the entire campaign. We were not quite yet used to watching very specific states as to their polls and which ones that mattered the most, never really thinking that the mid-west would decide the election.

Second, we had no idea that the Russians were helping Trump to such a degree. We DO know that they are not only helping this time, but they are helping with the full encouragement of the president of the United States.

Third, the lead Hillary had varied up and down. But there were also times she went down close to Trump. She was up fairly far at this point, but pollsters admitted that they didn’t account for education level in white voters, where they significantly undercounted support for Trump. They aren’t making that mistake again. Additionally, the October surprise went against Trump.

Fourth, Hillary won the popular vote by almost the exact degree predicted in national polls on election day. She was up 3% and won the popular vote by 2.3%.

Fifth, Trump has promised us that he will not peacefully give up power. We anticipate most mail-in votes coming from Democrats as Dems tend to be the people who respect the power of the disease more so than Republicans. Thus, there is every reason to worry that on election night, Trump will be ahead in many tight states and declare himself the winner, and as mail-in votes come in and Biden takes the lead, Trump declares them to be the fraudulent, rigged, votes he’s said all along. He has plans to go to the state legislatures.

All of that is quite worrisome. We cite all of it as motivation to get our asses out to the polls because all of it is made that much harder the bigger the Biden victory.

In that spirit, Nate Silver, the nation’s best prognosticator – who predicted a Clinton victory last time but had it very close to 50-50, which means that there was a chance Trump would win (people forget that part) has some good news for anyone down in the dumps:

I kind of expect the race to tighten just because a 10.5-point lead is quite gargantuan in this day and age of high polarization, but I don't think there's any sign that it's tightening yet.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020

And read the next two in order:

The media seems pretty eager for a new twist in the race after this disastrous period for Trump involving the debate and his COVID diagnosis, but that doesn't really correspond to what voters care about or are thinking about.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020

We are trying to provide a public service. We are not saying “Biden WILL win.” We are saying do not let your PTSD get you down and keep you from voting.

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Peace, y’all
Jason
[email protected] and on Twitter @JasonMiciak