For the last several months, polls have shown Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden with a healthy lead over President Donald Trump and some pollsters are forecasting additional gains for Democrats in the Senate. This is leading them to draw comparisons between the 2020 presidential election with the 1980 election when former President Ronald Reagan won by a landslide.
Republicans ousted 12 Senate Democrats in during the 1980 election but pollsters and analysts are painting a far rosier picture for Democrats this time around, according to TheWeek. [1] This includes Charlie Cook, who runs Cook Political Report.
In a tweet, he noted this doesn’t necessarily suggest a complete blue wave and recalled 1980’s losses for the Democrats but added he thinks the situation is going to be different this time. He predicted losses for Republicans “won’t hit twelve but could be a pretty big number.”
Those around in 1980 might recall that Birch Bath, the first Democratic Senate incumbent to lose, was about 6:30 pm ET, another dropped roughly every half hour for six hours, totaling 12. This won’t hit 12 but could get to be a pretty big number.
— Charlie Cook (@CharlieCookDC) October 21, 2020 [2]
But the most ardent supporter of this hopeful possibility has to be Joe Trippi, who has worked for Democratic campaigns for 40 years. He’s claiming voters are fatigued by Trump and consistently says 2020’s election looks a good deal more like the 1980 election and not like the one in 2016.
This reminds me of 1980 – not 2016 — contribute and vote and watch what happens to GOP in Senate. https://t.co/KxoRnMcndD [3]
— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) October 4, 2020 [4]
Yup. @JoeTrippi [5] has been telling me for months it's 1980-like change election. I'm seeing it in voter reg #s [6] and polling work we've done.
Upper Midwest is definitely under #BlueWave [7]. Some Southern states may be swept up, too.
Trippi's podcast is great. I listen every Fri. https://t.co/w5cGyJgo1c [8]
— Jude Barry (@HeyJudeBarry) October 7, 2020 [9]
Cook just changed Senate projections from likely Dem pickup of 2 seats to 7. This isn't 2016. It's 1980. My friend @JoeTrippi [5] has been saying this for months.
— Emily Lang (@emilylangok) October 13, 2020 [10]
Most President's generate political fatigue by the end of 8 years in office. No President has pulled it off as pronounced and fast as Trump since at least 1980 and that may not be fair to Carter. But that t is the last time I saw anything like this. https://t.co/WS6tIRHGLv [11]
— Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) October 15, 2020 [12]
Part of the reason that Trippi has concluded that the Democrats are going to do well is based on Cook’s suggestion [13] that only one Democratic seat is truly being challenged this year. When you consider how Republicans have treated Americans over the past four years — doing little to pass any meaningful healthcare or stimulus bills, foisting conservative Supreme Court justices on us, and supporting a president who is unquestionably racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, greedy, and quite possibly the worst president this country has ever elected; a man who thinks white supremacists are “very fine people,” it’s no wonder that Americans are feeling weary.
But the fact that pollsters and analysts are saying this isn’t an excuse to avoid voting. Hillary Clinton continually scored highly in the polls and too many of us sadly remember how that turned out. Please do your part and vote.