Well, as with all things Trump, part of his game is to keep everyone guessing. Why were the two Michiganders – the legislative leaders – at the bar in his hotel last night drinking $500 bottles of Dom Perignon? That would seem to fit this site’s theory as to what Trump’s end game has been all along, try to get the MAGAs in such a frenzy that they near demand their legislatures throw out the votes and send electors to the electoral college to vote for Trump. That’s sure what that looked like.
On the other hand, if this was Trump’s end game, he’d be out pounding the podium in those states, rallying up the people waiting to get COVID. He wouldn’t be sitting in his basement (see what I did there?) tweeting away. He keeps suing, he keeps losing because he truly has nothing at all. Perhaps the meeting with the Michiganders was about nothing more than to talk about “considering things” for a week. He needs the Michigan legislators to appear open to the idea, just to scare people.
But Ed Norton has a thread that we’re recommending you read because it makes one hell of a lot of sense to us and explains quite a bit of what we’re seeing. It is also classic Trump, from the bankruptcies to the lies, to turning to the Russian mob – he’s always got an end game, a feral survival instinct that might be the only real gift he has.
We’ll go down, as usual, read top to bottom, both tweets, we’re just saving space, but this is very much worth your time and we’ll see you below for our analysis:
I’m no political pundit but I grew up w a dad who was a federal prosecutor & he taught me a lot & I’ve also sat a fair amount of poker w serious players & l’ll say this: I do not think Trump is trying to ‘make his base happy’ or ‘laying the groundwork for his own network’…
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [1]
…or that ‘chaos is what he loves’. The core of it is that he knows he’s in deep, multi-dimensional legal jeopardy & this defines his every action. We’re seeing 1) a tactical delay of the transition to buy time for coverup & evidence suppression 2) above all, a desperate endgame
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [2]
…which is to create enough chaos & anxiety about peaceful transfer of power, & fear of irreparable damage to the system, that he can cut a Nixon-style deal in exchange for finally conceding. But he doesn’t have the cards. His bluff after ‘the flop’ has been called in court…
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [3]
His ‘turn card’ bluff will be an escalation & his ‘River card’ bluff could be really ugly. But they have to be called. We cannot let this mobster bully the USA into a deal to save his ass by threatening our democracy. THAT is his play. But he’s got junk in his hand. So call him.
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [4]
I will allow that he’s also a whiny, sulky, petulant, Grinchy, vindictive little 10-ply-super-soft bitch who no doubt is just throwing a wicked pout fest & trying to give a tiny-hand middle finger to the whole country for pure spite, without a single thought for the dead & dying
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [5]
But his contemptible, treasonous, seditious assault on the stability of our political compact isn’t about 2024, personal enrichment or anything else other than trying to use chaos & threat to the foundation of the system as leverage to trade for a safe exit. Call. His. Bluff.
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [6]
Faith in the strength of our sacred institutions & founding principles is severely stretched…but they will hold. They will. He’s leaving, gracelessly & in infamy. But if we trade for it, give him some brokered settlement, we’ll be vulnerable to his return. We can’t flinch.
— Edward Norton (@EdwardNorton) November 20, 2020 [7]
And before our analysis, we thought you’d like to see the typical MAGA response and a real person wake up the MAGA:
Brother they found a bunch of evidence, enough to impeach him. However the corrupt Republican party decided not to ratify the impeachment. But he still an impeached president, with evidence and witnesses to his actions. So I don’t know what you’re talking about.
— ARMENO (@ArmenoDesign) November 21, 2020 [8]
As for the MAGA guy and “spent all that time …” Yeah, amazing what one can do when one can fire the FBI Director for investigating him, fire anyone for anything, put loyalists everywhere, and still get caught committing a crime, as he did with impeachment – which was a clear crime.
As for Norton’s plan:
Okay – That all makes one hell of a lot of sense, except for a couple of things. We do not doubt for a second that destruction of evidence is happening all day and night right now, and that’s likely part of the reason Biden’s not getting any of the intelligence briefings. The intelligence briefings might include threats from Russia that Trump’s been ignoring from the beginning. It is conceivable that Biden might get a bit different “briefing” than Trump, too.
But there is one aspect that is bothering us about this entire scenario. If his biggest concern is legal liability for all this – to the point where he’d be charged with crimes and all that, why test the waters regarding self-pardons? (The one case that I recall reading about a self-pardon was 100 years old and involved a governor in WA. It didn’t work. AT all.)
If Trump’s primary concern is that he will he held liable for all this (in his lifetime – he knows that history will figure it out), why wouldn’t he hand the presidency off to Pence tomorrow, saying – it’s worth it, Mike. You’ll oversee the first stages of distributing the virus and might go down as a hero. I just need you to pardon me as the first thing you do.”
It is a bit of a risk because the papers might get signed and Trump shoves the pardon paper forward toward Pence only to have President Pence look at Ex-President Trump and say, “You’re on your own, fcker. You brought me into all this and I have enough problems now!” Pence would have every single right, morally, and legally. At that moment, Pence would be president, not Trump. But Pence is likely subservient enough, and Trump is likely tricky enough to do things a little backward and have his pardon signed before he signs his resignation (though there would be witnesses – that would be tricky). As we said, it’s a bit of a risk.
A Pence pardon would take care of every federal crime committed up to that point – all of them. The Nixon case proved you don’t have to be charged with crimes to be pardoned for them. Trump would, of course, have pardoned his entire family beforehand, but no one else that could testify against him. Because, if he pardoned someone, they wouldn’t be able to exercise their 5th Amendment rights – it’s been waived, so they’d have to testify against Trump or it’s a new crime.
But the state crimes you’re saying, what about New York? I am not sure – and I don’t know that anyone is sure, because this has never happened – I am not sure that a presidential agreement to step down and transfer papers to Biden peacefully could even involve NY unless they volunteered to be part of the agreement beforehand, something I doubt they would do.
The way we see it, the only way Norton’s “plan” or point could work is IF Trump had the states ready to send multiple electors to the electoral college already, meaning Trump really did have something with which to bargain. Because at that point, Trump has a constitutional ability or hole card to actually play. But that doesn’t seem to be coming together.
We don’t think Trump has a concrete plan right now. To the extent he does, it involved the state electors. We have been told that by Rudy, by DeSantis, by McConnell, (“wait for the electoral college”) – We suspect Norton hasn’t been reading Flare enough to know that at least part of Trump’s plan involves trying to convince the electors through the legislators.
Some of this is about nothing more than raising as much damned money as Trump can get his hands on. He cannot be out begging for money without a cause. His cause is fighting to “stop the steal” and thus he needs as much money as possible. Trump will never NOT be begging for money. THAT is what he does best, con, and beg for money. He lives on credit, and he lives well.
But the thread had enough substance in it that we believed it was worth your time and consideration. Truth is, Trump probably isn’t positive about what he wants to do right now except ensure he walks out of this without consequences. He certainly does realize by now that he isn’t serving a second term.
Oh, and on the part about “Do NOT deal with him. Call his bluff at every point. No deals.” We couldn’t agree more.
Social media went nuts:
Take 5 minutes and read this thread.
It's important and worth your time. https://t.co/lmDtgXgbT0 [9]
— Don Winslow (@donwinslow) November 20, 2020 [10]
this thread is well worth reading https://t.co/J6MjWSeNf7 [11]
— Jimmy Kimmel (@jimmykimmel) November 20, 2020 [12]
I've always loved Ed Norton as an actor, because he is DAMN GOOD at his craft! But this tweet thread of his?????
Maaaannn – Ed is dropping some insightful knowledge on all of us, and it definitely made me look deeper and in a different way about the "Why?" we are seeing. https://t.co/xDX76Jacvm [13]
— LaTashia Reedus – Please Spell It Right!!! (@TashiaTheSocDoc) November 20, 2020 [14]
A thread every American should read from my man Ed Norton. https://t.co/ct9LWqkRWq [15]
— Daniel Gouldman (@danielgouldman1) November 21, 2020 [16]
Holy hell this is good. https://t.co/f09UgLhX0K [17]
— Amber Naslund (@AmberCadabra) November 20, 2020 [18]
When Ed Norton has a better grasp of the current situation then most pundits https://t.co/GLQdfSdelJ [19]
— MG Chatterton K (@mightygodking) November 20, 2020 [20]
****
Peace, y’all
Jason
[email protected] and on Twitter @JasonMiciak