According to a new report from Detroit’s Channel Four, Ron DeSantis is within the margin of error against Donald Trump in a theoretical primary battle. That sounds great!

But at the same time, DeSantis is facing the first real MAGA heat of his tenure as Florida governor. His state’s 15-week abortion window has made Florida a destination for women’s choice. Floridians themselves remain staunchly pro-choice, and yet the MAGA presidential hopeful is under immense pressure to impose a complete abortion ban. Something has to give as DeSantis faces a crucial reelection bid in November.

First, the new poll in Michigan demonstrates Trump’s weakness and DeSantis’s rise. From Channel 4:

45.2% said they’d vote for Trump, while 41.6% said they’d vote for DeSantis. 12.4% were undecided. The sharpest difference was by education level, with Trump holding a large lead among high school educated voters, and DeSantis holding a large lead among college educated voters.

Among Trump Republicans, Donald Trump leads 70.7%-21.4%. But among “classic Republicans,” DeSantis holds a large lead of 53.3%-32.6%.

The difference between the two is within the margin of error in the poll. Michigan is a well-established key battleground state, and the poll will send shockwaves through Bedminster and infuriate Trump World that much further. Trump believes that he alone created DeSantis (Partly true), and DeSantis should promise to take himself out of the race if (when) Trump announces his candidacy. DeSantis has refused to rule out a run, and he would be highly unlikely to do so now as he is surging.

And why would DeSantis take himself out?

Trump still has to face revelations stemming from the House Select Committee, while DeSantis can sit back with his extra buttered popcorn and secretly hope that the FBI discovers it was Trump himself who planted the pipe bombs.

But the Florida abortion issue is going to force DeSantis into a very uncomfortable corner, one from which he may not escape. According to CBS News, Florida is becoming an abortion refuge for girls and women seeking to control their own bodies, which is just how a significant majority of Floridians want it. Florida, despite being quite red, is a majority pro-choice state. From CBS News:

Still, Florida’s abortion law is less restrictive than those in neighboring states, meaning many women from out of state travel to Florida for the procedure. 

Florida is on track to surpass last year’s total of out-of-state abortions, which was nearly 4,900, according to Florida Agency for Health Care Administration. As of July 6, there have been 2,548 out-of-state women who have had an abortion. 

DeSantis rules Florida with the totality of Stalin, and that is not hyperbole. He controls a pet legislature and the state supreme court. DeSantis alone will make the decision regarding what Florida does regarding abortion because DeSantis alone decides everything for Florida. The MAGAs are quite clear in what they expect:

“Florida is turning into an abortion destination state here in the South,” Andrew Shirvell, founder of Florida Voice for the Unborn, told CBS News. “We need a total ban on abortions here…

… It’s fueling speculation that it’s a political tight spot as he seeks reelection this year and eyes a potential run for president in 2024.”

Yes, that would be the MAGA demand and would put DeSantis in a very uncomfortable spot because 56% of Floridians believe that abortion should be legal in “most or all cases,” never mind a 15-week ban or total ban where support would most likely reach well above 60%.

This is a freight train headed straight for DeSantis as he gears up for his election in November. DeSantis will come under immense pressure to stop this “abortion vacation state” (As the MAGAs will call it), while the majority of Florida’s voters, including many Republican women, still favor choice. It is conceivable that the MAGA dream candidate ends up losing the race for governor. Presidential candidates don’t lose races for governor.

The obvious plan of action would be to force DeSantis into declaring his support for the 15-week ban (Which still keeps abortion legal to many girls and women all across the South) and then renege on that promise after the election and institute a statewide ban akin to every other red state. DeSantis is fully capable of such duplicity.

Such a move would help DeSantis considerably in a MAGA match-up with Trump. MAGAs would almost see the lie and reversal as a positive (anything to win), but it would be ruinous in a general election because it would be more evidence that DeSantis is a weasel that cannot be trusted, especially on an issue where the majority of the country remains firmly pro-choice at least in early pregnancies and in cases of rape and incest.

The “no win” tricky situation couldn’t possibly happen to a more deserving candidate.