This site has said since Biden’s inauguration that Trump will spend the entire interim acting as though he is running in 2024. It is the only way to keep the money flowing in. Trump won’t get money for a PAC that he’s going to simply hand out to others. No, Trump has to play the part. Whether he actually runs? We’ve said all along that we put it at less than 50-50. Maybe now, with all the criminal investigations (not charges) swirling around him, perhaps it’s risen to 50-50 because he thinks that running will protect him.

Maggie Haberman says that Trump is running because he’s backed into a corner. Whether he stays in? Tough to tell. From Mediaite:

Haberman spoke to CBS’ John Dickerson to promote Confidence Man, her soon-to-be-published Trump biography which has drawn significant media intrigue for the many revelations she provides on the ex-commander in chief. As she reflected on her experiences interviewing Trump for the book, Haberman was asked if she thinks he will run for president again.

While Trump has given an abundance of signals that he intends to run, Haberman has remained cautious on that subject and even maintained the possibility that he won’t pursue another bid. Haberman answered Dickerson’s question by saying “I don’t know,” but added, “I think he’s backed himself into a corner where he has to run.”

She does a good job of explaining why she believes that Trump has backed himself into a corner:

“I think that he needs the protections that running for president [he thinks] would afford him in combating investigations that he calls a ‘witch hunt,’” Haberman continued. “And it is the way that he fundraises and makes money. So much of his identity now is about being a politician. So, I expect that he will run. That doesn’t mean that even if he declares a candidacy, that he will stay in the whole time.”

Interesting. Because if he starts to run and then backs out, everyone will interpret that as a hedge against not losing again. He would have to declare a reason to drop out that suddenly hits him, perhaps a medical reason. It really is a hard read right now because of the vicious accusations that Democrats can’t beat him, so they’re prosecuting him only rings true if he’s running. If he pulls out and the investigations and possible charges continue, it starts to sound hollow, at least to some Republicans.

But very few know how Trump’s “mind” works better than Haberman, which is very much worth consideration.

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[email protected], @JasonMiciak, with Nicole Hickman