For nearly 40 years, Britain’s The Economist magazine has been publishing a segment detailing The World Ahead. It’s a look at what we may see coming in the future, and what dangers lay in our path. The Economist itself was founded in September 1843, so they’ve been around a while and have seen a lot of bad things happen.
And the biggest danger right now, they say, is Donald Trump.
That may seem like a “duh” moment to you, but you are not a deeply experienced analyst. You read what is available to you and nod along thoughtfully when you see something like this. Not so with The Economist.
From the outset, the article says that “no single person has ever eclipsed our analysis as much as Donald Trump eclipses 2024.” That’s a pretty strong statement, considering their analysis includes not just past performance, but the trepidation felt by those he would affect.
“A second Trump term would be a watershed in a way the first was not. Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power. His plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will have voted him in while knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline. The election will be decided by tens of thousands of voters in just a handful of states. In 2024 the fate of the world will depend on their ballots.”
That really is the most important part. It was one thing to know that Trump said awful things about women onboard a bus he didn’t know he was being recorded on. It’s another thing entirely to look at a man with 91 felony charges against him facing bankruptcy and possibly prison and vow to still vote for that man.
If America does, we send a message to the world that we are weak and stupid. It’s as simple as that.
And his effect wouldn’t be just limited to America, the article argues. China would see his election as a green light to invade Taiwan. Vladimir Putin would move into other neighboring states besides Ukraine.
And it gets even more depressing than that: The article describes Trump’s potential election back to the White House as a “coin toss probability.” That’s absolutely terrifying.
So go ahead and keep saying “duh” if you like. But understand that we ignore the danger of Trump at our own peril, and the peril of the world.