Donald Trump has a favorite polling source to quote when he goes on his Truth Social tirades, and it’s definitely not the New York Times/Siena poll. That could have something to do with the fact that they don’t skew results in his favor, like the ones he does like.

The latest poll conducted by the media giant and Siena College, taken between September 29 and October 6, shows Harris out in front of Trump by 3 points with likely voters, 47 percent to 44 percent. They surveyed 3,385 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 points.

That margin of error has to be gnawing away at the former president right now.

It means that the actual total percentage could either be Harris up by a whopping 5.4 points, or “only” ahead by 0.6 points — but still ahead in either case. Even if the poll was off by the total margin of error, Trump would still be losing.

Notably, it is the first time Harris has been solidly out front since Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her.

The crucial part of this poll is the difference between “registered” and “likely” voters. Lots of people are registered to vote, but as you know, only two-thirds of registered, eligible voters turned out in 2020 for the presidential election. That was the highest turnout in 120 years.

“Registered” just means CAN you vote — “likely” means WILL you vote.

Since the July polling, Trump has led Harris among registered voters by no more than two points, and among likely voters he’s either been tied or one point ahead, depending on whether third-party or Independent candidates were included.

Trump now trails Harris both nationally and in no fewer than four swing states.

Each day, this election looks like one that may reflect an electoral college winner that matches the popular vote winner. Trump has never won a popular vote, but since elections are decided by the electoral college, those swing states were imperative for Trump to win back in 2016.

The former president has been campaigning like crazy in those swing states, too. In just the last two weeks, Trump has done three rallies in Wisconsin, three in Pennsylvania, two in Michigan, and is scheduled for one in Nevada on Friday.

Harris is still polling ahead of him in all of those states.

In a Newsweek article about the recent poll, the news outlet said that “[W]hile polls have historically underestimated Trump’s levels of support, experts believe that the polls will not be as inaccurate this year because they have gotten better at capturing likely Trump supporters who were undercounted in the past.”

That would be some wake-up call.