Given my experience working for Mr. Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020 there will never be a peaceful transition of power.”

-Michael Cohen

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It occurred to us here at Flare that we might well start thinking about Michael Cohen’s words, which resonate with more power now having seen Trump’s response to being acquitted, going full dictator, and confronting an election in 7 months.

What happens if Trump refuses to leave office?

MSN published an article on this exact topic in response to Cohen’s testimony. In essence, it concludes that yes, Trump could and would be removed “by force” if he were to lose the 2020 election, but that everything is really a big question mark.

Experts interviewed on the possibility for this article said there is no real playbook for the scenario. Like, perhaps, the Trump administration itself, the United States would be in uncharted territory.

The problem with this article is that it was written prior to the impeachment, and assumes some cooperation from Republicans in Congress, which we no longer can trust, if we ever could.

All agree that if on the morning after the election Trump finds himself the loser of 40 states and by 30 million votes, he could “declare” himself Emperor of all Galactic Kings, and he would eventually be removed by force. Our institutions are simply too strong for Trump to take over that way.

 But that’s not the worry. I think we all know the real worry, and it is addressed by one of the experts in the article:

Baker imagined a scenario where the popular vote was won by less than 1 per cent nationwide, and where there was a near tie in the electoral college. On 4 November 2020, America could wake up to tweets from the president calling the previous day’s results a fraud, and saying there is no way he did not win by huge margins. Meanwhile, Fox News would be welcoming pundit after pundit toeing that presidential line.

Should that happen, Mr Baker can imagine a scenario in which the House of Representatives gets to decide the electoral college based upon each state’s delegation – which may or may not line up with the popular vote.

Don’t cheer:

The election of the President goes to the House of Representatives. Each state delegation casts one vote for one of the top three contenders to determine a winner. Only two Presidential elections (1800 and 1824) have been decided in the House.

California’s vote will be canceled out by Wyoming’s one congressional representative. Alaska’s one would cancel Washington’s. Idaho’s two would cancel Oregon’s … just think about the Senate and you’ll come up with how the state to state vote would go.

The fact is, I am near certain that a popular vote loss is near baked-in for Trump at this point. He lost to Hillary Clinton by 3 million, and he hasn’t expanded his base by a single vote. However, he has infuriated millions, mostly in blue states, who will vote their progressive asses off, trying to elect a blue congressman and senator, and thus Trump could – just could – win the electoral college, but an even bigger popular vote loss, perhaps by as much as six million.

The fear is that Trump again loses by 2%-3%, and yet there are tight votes in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Let’s call it the mirror image of the 2016 election, with the “apparent” winner being the Democrat, but by razor thin margins in certain states, even though the Democrat wins the popular vote by 5 million.

At that point, I would fully expect Trump to scream “Rigged!” just as he is already doing – talking about the only means to defeat him is to rig the election. He will accuse Russia of interfering for the Democrats. And, most devastatingly, he will say that “illegals voted,” and file a lawsuit attempting to prove it.

He will NOT voluntarily leave office until that “lawsuit” is settled, on that we can be near certain, and he will demand the election be settled by the House if he knows that the numbers align in his favor.

It is why I believe that this nation hasn’t yet faced up to the test we are about to face in the coming year. I agree with Michael Cohen – absent a massive, undeniable, loss – something that I think we can all agree is highly unlikely – Trump is NOT leaving voluntarily.

But we must not let the “election” go to the House of Representatives, because we KNOW that the House will ignore the popular vote, and vote Trump right on into office, assuming they have the votes. It is the House! All Trump need say is “Illegals!” and the Republicans will cast aside the popular vote totals and say they are voting the correct results.

One way or another, we MUST fight for the election to be determined by the ballots, not the House of representatives.

But, in the end, if Trump is declared the loser, by the courts and the electoral college, at that point, the FBI – who you know is dying to do this – can load up the weapons and move in on the White House. Truly, at that point, Trump is screwed, and will sign his pardon of himself (I guarantee that Trump is pardoning himself and his family on the way out the door, for: “Any possible “fake” charges that my enemies make up after I am out of office!” Whether it holds up or not is another question), he will declare that he “Made America Great Again” and move on to the rest of his miserable life.

We have one hell of a year ahead. Do not doubt it, and do not allow yourself to be complacent about it. Use your primary vote to remove Trump however you believe best, and then make sure you get three other people to vote who would otherwise not.

It is all we got.

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Peace, y’all

Jason

[email protected] and on Twitter @MiciakZoom