Politics - News Analysis
Trump Gets Devastating New Poll Numbers, Quinnipiac Showing He’s Down a Whopping 15 Points to Biden
We have written for some time that Trump’s campaign is in free fall. Just today we saw polls coming out from Pennsylvania showing Trump down 13% points. Pennsylvania is generally considered a “must-win” if one wants to carry the electoral college. We now have a tweet with Monmouth, generally considered a mid-level reliable poll. This is a substantial lead.
Pennsylvania poll: Monmouth
Biden 53%
Trump 40%**
DEMS: Biden leads 93-1%
GOP: Trump leads 84-12%
INDY: Biden leads 54-33%— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 15, 2020
A poll came out yesterday from the Dallas Morning News showing Trump down five points in Texas. A poll last week had Trump down six points in Florida – no question a state Trump must win – though, to be fair, with all the shenanigans in Florida it seems like a Democrat has to be up eight-ten points to actually win the Florida election.
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All of those polls came out in the last week. Today we see a new poll from Quinnipiac showing Trump down – BIG. The head to head match-up:
If these numbers go any lower, Trump won't be on the ballot, because the RNC is going to nominate another candidate, because Trump will have "no path" to victory. https://t.co/jxrkLKnbKz
— ((Fredàé)) | #Survive😷 | #Resist 📢 | #VoteBlue🌊 (@freddyatton) July 15, 2020
Four points in both directions? An increase of 7-8% in the electorate in one month!
It is very difficult to come back from those numbers, one might dare say impossible. And now the approval-disapproval ratings which are even more devastating:
Quinnipiac poll:
Joe Biden 52%
Donald Trump 37%Trump approval
Approve 36%
Disapprove 60%Trump's net job approval is his worst since August of 2017.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) July 15, 2020
Approval ratings at 36%? And the nation’s management of COVID isn’t getting better, it is getting worse! Those figures were likely collected 5-3 days ago. If anything, given the new record numbers of COVID, Trump could be at 34-35% approval ratings.
72% Say the country is on the wrong track according to NBC News.
Remember all those Republican consultants on the sidelines saying @ProjectLincoln efforts aren’t working?
That’s why they’re on the sidelines. https://t.co/p9eg2MufGO
— Mike Madrid (@madrid_mike) July 15, 2020
Yes, falling support from within the Republican party itself. Trump can tweet “96% support in the GOP, Thank You!” all he wants – we never know where he finds those numbers, they clearly are wrong.
Just 25% (according to NBC News) say that they want a president more focused on business right now, versus the vast majority (couldn’t catch the number of the television, we believe it was 57%) that want the president focused on battling COVID. People know that we cannot work on the economy until COVID is defeated.
These are the type of numbers that could – could – lead Trump to drop out of the race. He will want a pardon from Pence. But we have said we believe it is 50-50 that he makes it through July in office. The GOP convention is in August. We will see. But it is going in the right direction if one wants Trump out of office.
****
Peace, y’all
Jason
[email protected] and on Twitter @MiciakZoom
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