Regular readers will know that this site has given Trump 50-50 odds of making it through the month of July. Trump is currently trailing Biden by almost double digits in the Real Clear Politics polling average, meaning the average of all polls has Trump down 9.4 points, far more than any major candidate/incumbent in recent history. We have also pointed out that the Russian bounty scandal is Trump’s worst nightmare, a glaring criminal dereliction of duty probably owing to “whatever it is” that Putin holds over Trump. The entire nation is once again talking about Russia. On top of that, COVID makes being president “no fun,” which is why Trump has ignored it.

The Republican convention is in August. If Trump continues his downward slide, the presidency itself will be even less “fun” for Trump (which is all he cares about). The SCOTUS could well rule that Trump’s taxes must be produced any day now. The GOP will want to know if Trump is considering resigning, may pressure him to do so (and then they can run Nikki Haley), and will need to know by the end of the month.

Ex-Trump friend Donny Deutsch believes that Trump will drop out, but Deutsch limits his analysis simply to the fact that Trump cannot deal with the thought of losing in a landslide to Joe Biden. This morning Deutsch went off, talking to Joe Scarborough, and Donny laid out his thinking, according to Rawstory:

‘We’ve got four months to the election but we’re now entering the 57th month out of a 60-month experiment with Donald Trump,” he explained. “He is baked at this point, Joe Biden is baked at this point.”

“When you look at the 2016 election, you had Donald Trump who was an unknown, Hillary [Clinton] a known. Now we’ve got two knowns,” he continued. “And none of this stuff is going to work. It is just — it’s a pathetic attempt — people are not stupid, just like they’re not stupid about their health. They’re just not stupid and, Joe, I want to go back to something you teed up last week that I have been thinking all week.”

“I would not be shocked at some point if he doesn’t drop the mic,” Deutsch admitted. “It’s [the election] is not turning around. This is a guy that I cannot see standing up and owning the biggest landslide defeat in U.S. history. I know you have been throwing it out in, a lot of people are saying no, that’s not possible. But the more I think about it, the more I’m jumping on your bandwagon. I don’t see this guy going the distance.”

We believe it is 50-50, and it will happen (if it does) by the end of July. We are on record stating that Trump will discuss “health concerns,” and blame the media for “distorting my record,” and that the media has made it so “I don’t have a fair shot,” and thus he will declare that he’s “Made America Great Again” and ride off to Mar-a-Lago with a pardon from Pence, because “the Democrats will dream up some crime against me.”

Think about it. IF Trump decides he is likely going to lose big, this is what will happen. But if Trump thinks he can make it close, Trump will go forward and use every power he has – national emergencies, accusations of rigging, whatever it might be, to win the election.

It will be one or the other.

Someone get the SCOTUS ruling out, saying “Deliver your taxes to Congress by Monday morning,” and that would seal it.

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Peace, y’all
Jason
[email protected] and on Twitter @MiciakZoom