Donald Trump aides and the pols in Washington are well aware of the fact that there are two clashing political problems for the GOP. Simply put, they can’t live with Trump and they can’t live without him. For society at large, the MAGAs pose a diminishing political threat as they peel off, small slice of voters by small slice. But that remaining core poses a far larger threat of violence and possible hostile attempts to take over, just as we saw in January. Remember, 65% of the GOP still believes he won the election. This is the hardcore that is dangerous.

These concerns are all intensified as Trump prepares to hit the road for his beloved rallies. Everyone knows he needs these in his gut. But they were harmful enough before when he was president and had to at least restrain himself to a tiny degree. He is no longer president, he is angrier, more out of control, and he’s unchained by any of those presidential concerns. His gut is on fire.

This is a big problem for his aides and the politicians in Washington according to Politico:

Even as they tee off against Twitter and Facebook for banning Trump, GOP lawmakers are privately relieved he no longer has those megaphones. But the resumption of rallies gives Trump a new platform to spout conspiracy theories about the election and air his grievances — at the same time most Republicans are desperate to move on and talk about the Biden agenda.

Yep. Republicans are dying to talk about socialism, cancel culture, borders wide open, gas prices, inflation, etc, etc, etc. The plan is as predictable as a duck is going to quack. It is what the Repubs do whenever a Democrat is in power. Oh! And small little hints about black people, LGTBQ, and immigrants taking over “American values.”

Trump doesn’t want to talk about any of that and they know it.

“If we win the majority back in 17 months, it’s going to be in spite of Trump — not because of Trump,” said one senior House Republican aide for a lawmaker considered one of Trump’s top supporters on Capitol Hill. “He will totally take credit if we win the House back — but it won’t be because of him. This guy is a disaster.”

The “disaster” thing is interesting. Obviously, it encompasses the above and not wanting to talk about the future. But it might be a slight hint that Trump is slipping, more out of touch, maybe in a bit of failing health, his decision-making might be a bit diminished, and his anger over the election and possibly being charged with crimes will fuel a fury like never before.

Most Republicans are expecting a rerun of the oldies: false claims of voter fraud, witch hunts and the like — only to be hounded by reporters for their comment on the outrage of the moment. 

The Republicans that oppose Trump are elated, Rep. ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) said: I do think that’s going to be fatiguing with people, and eventually folks besides the most hardcore are going to say, ‘Okay, it’s time to move on,’” he said. “My hope is that actually in those rallies, people realize this is starting to get nuts.”

Now, Politico says that people have been predicting that for years and it hasn’t happened yet. We are stunned. Politico is wrong, very wrong. The Democrats poured on a blue wave in 2018 and won both Senate seats in Georgia and Arizona, along with the presidential election. Of course, it has happened or those victories wouldn’t have happened.

So the Republicans are scared. They are poised to take back the house in 2022. It almost always happens in the mid-terms of a president. And yet Trump might still get in the way. We would predict that he would do just that were it not for the state’s new election laws and Joe Manchin refusing to budge on passing new rules that would allow the new national voting rights law to pass. Even with Trump, the GOP will likely squeak out enough victories in 2022 to take back the House, impeach Biden over something ridiculous and prevent all legislation, all the stuff that is as predictable as a duck …

But concurrently, there is the fact that Trump will be whipping up his most hardened supporters, telling them that they themselves are under attack and they’ve got to get tougher. The last time he did this the results were horrific and it failed. We cannot predict what might happen next.