Politics - News Analysis

Top GOP Strategist Predicts Republicans Will Lose the House in 2024

A Republican political strategist with decades of experience didn’t have good news for his party on Sunday, suggesting Republicans could be routed by the Democrats and kicked out of the House in 2024, Newsweek reports.

Ed Rollins is a veteran GOP consultant who has worked on many major presidential campaigns that stretch all the way back to Ronald Reagan’s reelection efforts in 1984. He’s recently co-chaired Donald Trump’s Great America political action committee (PAC) but then moved to the Ron DeSantis’s camp to help launch the Ready for Ron PAC, a group that’s dedicated to seeing that DeSantis becomes president.

But now DeSantis’s campaign is faltering and resulting in doubts as to whether he’s a viable national candidate, and that leaves Rollins feeling less than enthusiastic about DeSantis and the chances of the GOP next year. He knows both are on a downward spiral and he shared his thoughts with Rolling Stone for a story published Sunday. Rollins admitted he is no longer involved in promoting DeSantis, and in a lengthy quote posted to Twitter by reporter Asawin Suebsang, he said he thought it likely Trump will become the 2024 Republican nominee for president. However, with Trump in that position, he predicted President Joe Biden would serve a second term as president and that Republicans would lose their slight majority in the House of Representatives.

“I don’t think it’s the campaign’s fault at all; it’s his,” Rollins told Rolling Stone. “I think he’s been a very flawed candidate. I know some of the people around him, and some of them are good, talented people. But every time he opens his mouth, he has a tendency to—shall we say—think out loud, and he clearly doesn’t understand the game…DeSantis is the only one who has the resources [to win against Trump in the primary], but he’s diminishing by the day.”

Rollins seems to think of DeSantis as a “bull in the china shop” and criticized him as “not a particularly articulate candidate,” and adds that he lacks the skills to make meaningful connections with voters and understand their concerns, a skill that he said “Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama,” were adept at. And, like others, Rollins is concerned that DeSantis is focusing too heavily on culture war issues that have turned plenty of people off outside of Florida.

“At this point in time, I don’t see how he’s going to turn it around,” Rollins said. “I think it’s gonna be Trump’s game, and at this point in time, I would be shocked if Trump were not the nominee…And at the end of the day, I don’t see how Trump is a viable presidential candidate in part because of his legal problem, but I certainly think he is the favorite to be the nominee. So, unless serious happens, Biden is probably going to get a second term…and I could even see Republicans losing their majority in the House.”

And Rollins isn’t wrong. Republicans are barely clinging by a hangnail in the House of Reps, with 222 seats compared to 212 held by Democrats. He knows that historically, the opposition party tends to do well in the midterms when a new president takes office, but that hasn’t been the case for the 2022 midterm elections. This time around Republicans bombed, failing to regain the Senate and taking considerably fewer House seats than was expected. This led to pundits pointing to Trump’s continued influence on the GOP as a sizable factor driving voters away from the GOP. And Rollins believes this trend will continue into 2024.

Looks like some within the GOP are tiring of the status quo. More moderate Republicans are faced with the likes of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), not to mention Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), and at least some of them are likely repulsed by this. Overall, it seems like the Party has been pretty unstable over the past months when you consider how many attempts Kevin McCarthy had to make before finally becoming House Speaker.

There’s dissension within the ranks and it shows.

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